Will mobile video be as big as everybody thinks. We hear constantly in the media that everyone is going to start watching TV on their phones. Apple's iphone, Sprint's Instinct, Verizon's Slide and the upcoming Blackberry Thunder. I agree the 3G phones are awesome but will they become the center of the video viewing world.
What do you think?
Apple iPhone is poised to rule the world for mobile video, IF all the content comes through iTunes. Apple as yet doesn't allow Flash on the iPhone so you can't stream free TV from the likes of Hulu.com or any other major network. Adobe can port Flash to it but Apple has to allow the upgrade and it's not really in Apple's interest to do that right now. It would seem other widget providers would be smart to take advantage of this but service providers like AT&T don't like the idea of stepping aside as dumb pipes. Someone's gotta make a buck on all that traffic. Since web ad revenue is still in the nether world, watch for higher fees for "All Access" content. Consider it a mobile cable bill. For free TV.
I predict mobile video will continue to grow in the form side-loaded content like iTunes does for storage on devices. However, adoption of streaming video over 3G (HSPA, EVDO) or MediaFlo networks in the US market will be limited during the next 2-3 years, with some take up primarily for live sports and one-on-one video calling. The launch of 4G (LTE) networks in 3-4 years may then fuel more significant growth in streaming.
I think that mobile video will be larger than anyone is thinking right now. I do not think that everyone will be watching their favorite TV shows on tthe small mobile screens. I do however feel that we will get video greetings from our friends. I think that user generated videos will continue to grow and will be circulated via mobile devices. I would love to hear some other thoughts on this.
After attending the NAB show last week last week in Las Vegas, it's clear to me there are three fundamental forms of mobile video delivery:
1) Side loading -- download to PC, then sync with local storage on mobile device (Apple iTunes approach)
2) Stream over data services -- using a cellular-based data services plan to get video streamed in near real time, or downloaded. Popular for user generated content, live events, and premium on demand content.
3) Over the air (OTA) -- the new ATSC Mobile TV standard will offer high-quality broadcast video over new digital TV air waves, separate from your cellular-based data services. New phones will require ATSC receivers and antennas to get this coverage.
I noted a lot of hype surrounding #3 OTA Mobile TV at the NAB show last week. We'll see if the hype and enthusiasm is deserved or not. Getting mobile TV devices to market around the cell phone mobile network operators will be a key success factor.
Successful mobile video solutions may involve some hybrid of the 3 approaches above.